Cross-Borders | Notion

Several verticals see over $10bn of trade a year, with many categories growing rapidly. The majority of this trade is completely offline.

The current value chain is captured by large manufacturers (Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Arvind Mills, Kiran Gems, NACL Industries Ltd., etc.) and traditional export/import houses (International Lace Trade Center, Gokaldas Exports, Rajesh Exports, MMTC, etc.)

Global tailwinds - Supply chains gradually decoupling from China

As things stand, China still holds the lion’s share of the global trade of semi-finished and manufactured goods. Alibaba, Aliexpress, DHGate, HKTDC, Banggood and other platforms have cornered the supply-side with B2B and B2C cross-border marketplaces across verticals. However, with several macroeconomic headwinds, China is beginning to look inward to some extent, and we expect India to capture some of that export demand over the next decade. India-focused import/export platforms have begun to emerge, and several domestic-first players such as Bijnis, IndiaMart are also beginning to explore the cross-border opportunity.
Policy enacted in 2022, known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), plays a key role. Trade among RCEP countries including South Korea, Japan, and China and others across Asia-Pacific is expected to increase following the reduction in tariffs and other trade barriers.
However, in relation to European and American markets, China and South Korea are slowly losing their dominance. New policies enacted by the Biden Administration have aimed to diversify and strengthen free trade, specifically in the Indo-Pacific region, enabling competitors such as India and several African countries to emerge as trade suppliers.
Effects of this are expected across several categories. India’s textile exports are expected to grow by 81% to $65bn by 2026 from the pre-Covid level of around $36bn in 2019. $16bn of this delta is expected to come from China’s share of the current textile industry. Similar growth is expected in China-dominated categories of fabrics, home decor, man-made fibres and yarn, etc.
Beijing’s prioritisation of economic control over growth and its virus-induced policy of enforced isolation have accentuated the shift towards self-reliance. China’s efforts to reduce its dependence on foreign technology, and place more emphasis on boosting domestic demand, attest to an economy turning inward.

Domestic tailwinds